posted Jan 4th, 2012 - It's that time of the year again when the NSL News has to make the transition from one database to another, and it seems like it has happened successfully and without too much pain. It is also that time of the month when the Blue Skies Mag publishes the new issue, and the NSL News has contributed once again to the January 2012 publication.

The article still covers a 2011 event, the last major one of the year, the 3rd Dubai Championship 2011. The final numbers of the top teams in 2011 offered the opportunity to do some scoring math.

The NSL News concluded in the October/November column for Blue Skies Mag (NSL News on 23 October 2011) that the final numbers would be crunched after Dubai in December. Here it comes, literally...

Turning Points - Vive La France after Dubai 4way Speculation

Back to the athletic part of Formation Skydiving competition after a few Turning Points excursions to other areas of the sport.

The NSL News was asking after the World Cup 2011 in Germany what the 4way world is without Arizona Airspeed. It was all speculation, of course, as the best US team did not compete in Germany. There was no way around acknowledging Aerodyne Aerokart, the French national 4way team, as the best 4way team in the world after winning the World Cup in August.

The speculation had to continue since Airspeed also did not travel to the 3rd Dubai Championship 2011 where Aerodyne Aerokart and NMP-PCH Hayabusa met again for the next showdown and the final 2011 word. However, now there was more hard data after Airspeed's walk in the park at the USPA Nationals 2011. Yes, it turned out to be the expected walk in the park on Airspeed's home turf in Eloy. No other team got even close. The Golden Knights won the silver medals, while Perris Fury pushed the SDC Rhythm XP underdog from the third medal position in the last minute, literally. The Rhythm drama, together with extremely tight races in the other 4way categories, made it a very exciting event despite the lack of suspense on the top.

USPA Nationals 2011		Rd. 1	Rd. 2	Rd. 3	Rd. 4	Rd. 5	Rd. 6	Rd. 7	Rd. 8	Rd. 9	Rd. 10	Total	Avg
Rank	AAA Class	M,5,13	21,14,22	12,20,D	11,Q,16	O,C,10,K	P,L,19,8	18,6,2	15,9,G	7,F,17	A,B,N,J,3	Total	Avg
1	Arizona Airspeed	25	19	19	22	26	24	21	26	31	30	243	24.3
2	Golden Knights Gold	18	17	18	21	24	23	19	21	29	28	218	21.8
3	Perris Fury	20	17	16	21	26	22	15	21	29	29	216	21.6
4	SDC Rhythm XP	22	17	18	21	24	20	19	22	26	26	215	21.5

Although it was a walk in the park for Airspeed in the Eloy desert we are far from expecting such an easy walk in the bigger picture, the 4way competition on the top of the 4way world. That is especially the case after taking a closer look at the scores in the Dubai desert on the other side of the planet. There is hard data now to determine the current top position in the world.

How could that be if Airspeed did not meet the two top teams from France and Belgium? There is a simple mathematical trick that can put things in a better perspective. As mentioned, it is still all speculation, but the new hypothitical numbers are much closer to the truth and the current situation than before Eloy and Dubai. Let's look at the formula and do the numbers.

SDC Rhythm XP and Perris Fury competed directly with Arizona Airspeed at the USPA Nationals 2011. Then they traveled to Dubai and repeated their own battle over eight rounds, while Aerodyne Aerokart and NMP-PCH Hayabusa pushed each other once again far away on the top of the leaderboard. However, the situation was similar, as Airspeed was just as far away from the other US teams in Eloy as France and Belgium were from the rest of the world and the two US teams in Dubai. Really? Maybe not...

3rd Dubai Championship 2011		Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7	Round 8	Total	Avg
Rank	AAA Class	L,C,P,20	K,M,6,15	G,19,H,11	2,10,E	13,9,5	O,7,3	B,21,16	4,1,22	Total	Avg
1	Aerodyne Aerokart	33	26	26	20	25	27	28	20	205	25.6
2	NMP-PCH Hayabusa	32	23	25	22	25	27	25	18	197	24.6
3	SDC Rhythm XP	28	24	23	18	21	23	22	15	174	21.8
4	Perris Fury	28	19	21	17	19	24	21	16	165	20.6

Airspeed won in Eloy with a 24.3 average, which would have been just good enough for the 3rd place in Dubai. Well, of course, the competition draws were different, and this number doesn't really say anything. So, let's be more accurate and use the Rhythm and Fury scores to get a better idea. They both combined for a 21.6 average (21.6 - 21.5) at the USPA Nationals.

The same two US teams combined for a 21.2 average (21.8 - 20.6) in Dubai. SDC Rhythm XP outscored Perris Fury and won bronze medals this time and at the last meet for Center Inside Rob Radez, but this is stuff for another story...

The interesting part of the combined 21.2 average is the fact that you can now calculate the hypothetical average that Airspeed would have scored in Dubai. The formula would give the best US team and 4way Open Class champion of 2011 a 23.9 average in Dubai, which would put the best US team quite far behind France and Belgium.

You can apply the same numbers the other way around, as well. The French 25.6 average in Dubai compares to the combined US average of 21.2 at the same event, and according to those numbers Aerodyne Aerokart would have scored a 26.1 average at the USPA Nationals. That's a hard blow and difficult to believe. And yes, NMP-PCH Hayabusa would have clearly beaten Airspeed in Eloy, as well. The top averages in Eloy would be 26.1 (France) - 25.1 (Belgium) - 24.3 (Airspeed), the top averages in Dubai 25.6 (France) - 24.6 (Belgium) - 23.9 (Airspeed).

Okay, this is hypothetical and speculation, and it is really quite far away from reality. But how far? It is a fact that Airspeed has not trained since the conclusion of the USPA Nationals. That would be different if they had traveled to Dubai. The same counts the other way around. France and Belgium both had additional time to prepare for Dubai. There was a 4-week period between the conclusion of the USPA Nationals and Round 1 in Dubai.

How much closer would the three top teams really be to each other if they competed at the same meet at the same time right now?

Nobody knows the answer to that question. However, it is a fact that Aerodyne Aerokart and NMP-PCH Hayabusa have been pushing each other forward successfully at and between the big meets that they both have attended. Especially the French progression with new Center Inside Emmanuel "Manu" Sarrazin is very impressive after ending up far behind Airspeed at the Valentine's Meet 2011 in February. It was a big year for the French 4way team, which defended the Number 1 position in the world successfully in Dubai. By the way, they also took home $40,000 cash which made the victory in Dubai even sweeter. Hayabusa won $30,000 and Perris Fury $20,000 while Rhythm got the bronze medals. Go figure...

It seems to be reasonable to speculate that France has the top spot at the end of the 2011 season and that Belgium has caught up with the best US team. It also seems to be obvious that it will be more difficult than ever for a US team to win the gold medals at the next World Championship of Formation Skydiving. Arizona Airspeed knows that, and the team members appreciate the challenge. The team copied the Dubai competition draw in the first training camp after the USPA Nationals, and only they know exactly where they stand at the end of the year and how much work is coming up.

The 2012 season is already extremely exciting before it has even begun...