posted Jul 13th, 2019 - Well, "Part 87" is slightly exaggerated, I admit. However, this exciting and apparently never-ending race for the world's top spot in Formation Skydiving competition just doesn't let go of anybody who is seriously interested in the sport. And that includes me.

I touched on the subject again recently in one of the NSL News updates, which was related to the latest breaking news, first from Belgium, then from Arizona. Once again, I was fascinated and could not cover the whole deal just with a few paragraphs for the news update. Here is more for the hard-core fans...

It seemed like NMP PCH HayaBusa and Arizona Airspeed had coordinated their news releases of personnel changes to shake up the audience and get all the attention. It's the slower time of the year in 4-way and 8-way news. The indoor season is over, after the indoor world meet at Weembi Lille in April, and the teams transition to outdoor training and competition. There are a few smaller meets, like the Paraclete XP Summer Classic, and of course all the regular league events of the international NSL Network. However, the national championships in all countries are the next more relevant events, and they are usually scheduled towards the end of the outdoor season.

So, it was relatively quiet in May and June - until HayaBusa and Airspeed shook up the ground, almost within a week of each other. That's not news any longer, as we are now in the middle of the summer, and both teams train hard for their national championships and the world cup in October. Such breaking news have a long tail though, and I am still fascinated by the nature of both cases. They could not be more different, while they almost appeared to be coordinated. It's not only the fact of the actual changes in the team rosters that is so interesting. There is so much more to it and that's what I want to throw at you this time.

TURNING POINTS - AIRSPEED VS. HAYABUSA - PART 87

NMP PCH HayaBusa: The Belgian 4-way world champions won their first gold medals in 2014 with the lineup in its fourth year, and they have successfully defended the world title ever since. Roy Janssen left and the new lineup with Jeroen Nollet is in its fifth year, with another year to go. This means that HayaBusa had one roster change in a 10-year period that concludes at the FAI World Meet 2020.

Arizona Airspeed: The U.S. team had six different lineups in the same time period since 2011, and one of them won the Airspeed gold medals in 2012 for the last time.

NMP PCH HayaBusa: The recently announced change in the lineup (Michele Silvi for David Grauwels) is not happening right now. There is a well-thought-out plan behind the move and the NSL News laid out this plan at SKYLEAGUE.COM. The new member will join the active lineup after the FAI World Meet 2020 in Russia and leaving member David Grauwels may even stay on as the team videographer. It looks like a very smooth transition.

Arizona Airspeed: Ari Perelman left the team surprisingly and announced the departure to his former team mates at the end of May. Airspeed updated the audience at the beginning of June. This was obviously not a very smooth transition and Airspeed scrambled to find an adequate substitute. Matt Davidson agreed to join the team for the remainder of the year.

Arizona Airspeed versus NMP PCH HayaBusa Between 2004 and 2018

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Okay, so what's the big deal? The conclusion seems to be quite obvious: HayaBusa is a well-oiled gold-medal-producing machine and Airspeed is in chaos. Hang on, not so fast, it becomes really interesting behind the curtains.

Remember Dubai 2012 when HayaBusa was at the end of their second year with the new lineup of 2011? Airspeed won by one single point with arguably the strongest lineup in team history. At least by the numbers, as the 27.9 average of 2012 is still the highest standing 4-way outdoor average in history.

But that's not the point I am trying to make. It's the 1-point difference after ten rounds (279 - 278) that I am looking at, which is NOTHING in a 4-way competition. HayaBusa could have just as well won the gold medals in 2012. In other words, both teams launched themselves from nowhere to the highest performance level in history within a 2-year period. Now look again at the comparison between the "well-oiled gold-medal-producing HayaBusa machine" and the "Airspeed chaos"...

It becomes even more interesting when you also look at the 2-point difference (279 - 277) in Australia last year. It was the reigning 4-way world champion of 2014 and 2016 winning by two points and the 2018 lineup was at the end of its fourth year, while Airspeed completed the second year with newest member Ari Perelman in the lineup. I will turn it around now: Airspeed could have just as well won the gold medals in 2018.

I guess that I shared my first thoughts after both breaking news from Belgium and Arizona with the vast majority of 4-way fans in the world: It may even become boring at the top level of 4-way competition in the coming years, as HayaBusa have secured a very solid position with a great plan for the future.

Again, not so fast. I hope that my point gives everybody hope for more extremely exciting competition to come. I am hopeful after giving it more thought. Neither of the two very different ways how to run the team franchise is the better one. They are just simply very different and they fit perfectly to the according logistics.

NMP PCH HayaBusa is a part of the Belgian military. Systematic planning and consistency is a very typical way to run a military operation. Arizona Airspeed is a private team franchise that has to take care of its financial and athletic survival. The team members perform training, competition and living under constant pressure. It is actually no big surprise that it is more difficult to keep a lineup together for a long time under those challenging circumstances. Last and not least, I like to compare our sport with others. The team rosters change every year in professional and amateur sports. It does not mean that a team becomes weaker and cannot come back on the same performance level within a short time period.

Airspeed have been experts in scrambling and attracting the best of the best to Arizona when a slot becomes vacant. And they have shown many times how you can get from a fresh start to the highest performance level on the 4-way planet. They will do it again, and we will see a new battle with HayaBusa...